Hope Springs Eternal

Winter tends to drag on in the upper Midwest, and it's hard not to draw comparisons to the lagging economic recovery and its affect on the spa and pool building and retail industries. A bright and temperate day here offers hope for an early spring, just as a round of better-than-expected corporate earnings seems to promise an impending economic turnaround. But both are often followed by disappointment, with cloudy skies both literal and figurative reminding us that we're not in control, that a buoyant mood is no match for the greater forces we're up against.

Still, industry players remain optimistic, knowing economic recovery follows a recession as surely as summer follows spring. And signs of that recovery are evident to anyone who's read a paper, turned on a television or talked to their peers. In February, for instance, the Labor Department released a jobs report showing unemployment had dipped below 10 percent. Even better news was that retail sales in January showed significant signs of improvement, with even high-end retailers such as Neiman Marcus and Nordstom carving out gains. Naturally, these bits of good news were tempered by those who pointed out that almost one in 10 American remains jobless, home values haven't rebounded much and banks are still loathe to loan money. Furthermore, they threw water on the positive retail sales, saying they look strong only because they were so anemic the year before.

These naysayers do have valid points, and any optimism should be of the guarded type. But for an industry that's been as beat up as ours has, even the smallest ray of hope is cause for celebration. Let the economists argue about what the numbers mean, and about whether tomorrow will bring sunshine or rain. The rest of us, having memories that stretch back to long strings of bright days, know that each passing day brings us closer to their eventual return.